Asteroid 2004 MN4 will miss
Earth in 2029
NASA's NEAR EARTH OBJECT PROGRAM OFFICE
Posted: December 27, 2004
As is often the case, the possibility of future Earth impacts for some near-Earth objects cannot be entirely ruled out until the uncertainties associated with their trajectories are reduced as a result of either future position observations, or in this case, heretofore unrecognized, pre-discovery observations. When these additional observations were used to update the orbit of 2004 MN4, the uncertainties associated with this object's future positions in space were reduced to such an extent that none of the object's possible trajectories can impact the Earth (or Moon) in 2029.
The passage of the asteroid by the Earth in 2029 alters its subsequent trajectory and expands the
asteroid's position uncertainty region (i.e., the line of white dots increases in extent) so the
asteroid's subsequent motion is less certain than it was prior to the 2029 close Earth approach.
However, our current risk analysis for 2004 MN4 indicates that no subsequent Earth encounters in the
21st century are of any concern.